Demand Increasing at Slot-Coordinated UK Airports

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Anne Correa, mba’s Director of Airline & Airport Services, explores how slot-coordinated airports in the United Kingdom manage their coveted assets and what airlines are willing to do to gain access.

Landing and departure slots are some of the most important assets in the aviation industry. When the demand to land or depart from a specific airport exceeds the infrastructure’s capacity, there is a value in the slots. IATA defines[1] airports with demand greater than supply as Level 3, or slot-coordinated. Exactly who is able to take advantage of the value attached to these slots depends on the jurisdiction in which the slots reside.

Which are the UK’s slot-coordinated airports?

The United Kingdom currently has eight Level 3 airports.[2] London Heathrow (LHR) is the best-known Level 3 airport in the UK, both within the country and the world, because it is one of the largest airports by passengers globally and has operated at full capacity for so long. It comes as no surprise that aircraft movement growth at LHR is 0% over the last three years.  Heathrow simply cannot increase the number of movements with the current infrastructure.  Airlines must increase the size of their aircraft being used at Heathrow or consider alternative airports.  As air traffic growth puts increased pressure on the existing infrastructure, other airports within the region are seeing an increased interest in their slots.

Source: UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), OAG Schedules, Airport Coordination Limited (ACL) for FY 2017 (LHR, LGW, MAN, STN, LTN, BHX, LCY, BRS)

 

How do airlines acquire slots at these slot-coordinated airports?

The traditional way to acquire slots is to go through the slot coordinator, Airport Coordination Limited (ACL), at the IATA slot conferences held twice a year.  At these meetings airlines submit requests for certain times during the season and negotiate with the airport to finalize their schedules.

Alternatively, airlines are increasingly utilizing the secondary market to acquire slots.  The airlines must still formally trade or swap these slots through ACL, but the negotiation can be directly between the respective airlines.  The UK is one of the few countries that currently allow for a secondary market.  In other jurisdictions, if an airline chooses to stop operating a slot, that slot will be returned to the authorities for redistribution.  In the UK, the usage rights of the slot may be passed from one airline to another, at the value agreed upon between the two parties.

Source: Airport Coordination Limited (ACL) as of July 2018

Led by Heathrow, more Level 3 airports are seeing an increase in their slots being traded outside of the bi-annual slot conference.  Since 2008, Heathrow has seen approximately 35 slot trades on average per year.  Slots at Gatwick (LGW) are trading more frequently as airlines have looked for alternatives to Heathrow.  In 2016, we saw the first slot trade at London City (LCY) and in 2017, Luton (LTN) and Stansted (STN) recorded slot trades for the first time.

Some airlines have opted to acquire competition in order to procure additional slots in slot-coordinated airports.  In 2007 easyJet bought GB Airways in part for its Gatwick slots.  International Airlines Group (IAG) acquired British Midland International (BMI) similarly in part for its Heathrow slots in 2012.

Which airlines hold these valuable slots at UK’s Level 3 airports[3]?

Landing and departure slots are some of the most important assets in the aviation industry.  mba expects a demanding road ahead for slot transactions as air traffic growth continues to outpace the available infrastructure in the United Kingdom.

[1] World Slot Guidelines
[2] Bristol Airport (BRS) is Level 3 for night and night shoulder movements 2200 to 0559 UTC from S18.
[3] Full year 2017 data for American Airlines, AerLingus, Blue Air, BMI Regional, British Airways, CityJet, EasyJet, Eurowings, flybe, Jet2.com, KLM, Lufthansa, Luxair, Monarch, Norwegian, Pegasus Airlines, Ryanair, SWISS, Thompson Airways, Virgin Atlantic, Wizz;

Source: OAG (Monarch data included for accuracy however the airline went bankrupt in October 2017)

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2018 Farnborough Airshow Results

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The 2018 Farnborough Airshow generated impressive results for the commercial sector as both major manufacturers Boeing and Airbus announced a healthy number of new orders and commitments. At the end of the week, Boeing has a slight edge over Airbus with a total of 673 orders and commitments compared with Airbus’ 431. While both the aviation rivals had their share of successes at Farnborough, they will continue to face challenges to keep up with market demand, including engine productivity and overlying trade wars between the United States and China.

An Aviation Rivalry in Flux

Ten years ago, Airbus and Boeing were regularly neck and neck when it came to the backlog of firm orders. However, for the last five years, Airbus has managed to receive more firm orders than its rival, with an aircraft backlog reaching a surplus of 7,000 compared with Boeing’s 6,000 aircraft backlog, at the end of last year. Despite having the backlog advantage, Boeing is slowly increasing its numbers and threatening to bump Airbus from the leading backlog position.

With high hopes for the future, both manufacturers have stated that they intend to reach a set monthly production rate for their leading narrowbody aircraft by the end of next year. Airbus hopes for 63 aircraft monthly for their A320 Family, while Boeing plans to produce 57 per month for their 737. The planned increase in output was announced after both companies recognized the necessity for higher production rates in order to avoid losing their current orders. The biggest challenge for both entities will be making sure the engine manufacturers are able to fulfill their own production goals. Through all of this, the influx of orders and commitments prove that the market is still craving narrowbody aircraft, just as long as Boeing and Airbus can keep up with the demand.

Farnborough Orders & Results

Airbus began the week leading up to the Farnborough Airshow with a year to date total of 321 orders. Before the week closed, the European manufacturer added 93 firm orders and 338 memorandums of understanding (MoUs), increasing total orders and commitments to 431; by comparison, 105 more than the Paris Air Show the previous year. Forty-two of the commitments are for both models of the new A330neo. Another notable agreement came from JetBlue Founder, David Neeleman, who also signed an MoU for 60 A220-300s which he plans to add to a new U.S. carrier. Neeleman’s agreement came shortly after JetBlue placed the exact same order. Through the success of orders flowing in, Airbus Chief Commercial Officer Eric Schulz believes the results show a “strong market appetite for all [their] leading aircraft product families…” covering all models except for their A380, which Schulz believes is now breaking into the second-hand market.

While Airbus had a strong showing in Farnborough this year, Boeing’s time at the airshow was also well spent. Coming in with year to date orders reaching 460 aircraft, they wrapped up their week with a total of 673 orders and commitments, which was 242 more than their main competitor and 102 more than their own numbers at the Paris Air Show in 2017. Seventy-three of those orders and commitments were for their freighter aircraft. These total results cash in at $100 billion, $2.1 billion of which is dedicated to commercial and defense services, while the remaining account is for commercial aircraft. The success of the week, according to Boeing, shows “resurgence in demand for freighters and strong order activity for the 737 MAX and 787 passenger airlines.” Two new customers signed on for the MAX 10 and the 787 alone will soon reach more than 1,400 orders once the commitments from this air show are solidified.

 


Source: Cargo Facts

Evidence of Trade War Impact

An important item to note as the 2018 Farnborough Airshow came to a close is that of the total 1,104 orders and commitments, just over 29% of them were placed by unidentified customers. The first two days alone saw undisclosed customers signing for 180 A320neo Family aircraft, starting the show off on a high note for Airbus. According to Cargo Facts, it is believed that a good portion of those orders were placed by Chinese companies intentionally to mask their moves due to the growing trade war between their country and the United States.

The trade war began after the US tariffed $34 billion worth of items from China, with the looming threat of $500 billion in tariffs. Firing back, China placed tariffs aimed at specific regions throughout the States, especially hitting the Midwest. According to the Washington Post, the country at risk for more economic loss is China, as 20% of their exports are sent to the US. However, China has the ability to withstand more in the coming year due to their political system having an immensely different chain of command compared to the US. This ongoing trade war seems to be the primary reason for an uptick in unidentified customers at the Farnborough Airshow.

The implications of this trade war threaten the aviation industry in the States as well. For example, the 25% tariff on aircraft weighing anywhere between 33,000-99,000lbs greatly affects Boeing’s 737s, which is the most common aircraft in that spectrum. Additionally, 20% of Boeing’s order book is comprised of orders from Chinese organizations, which is where the anonymity of this year’s airshow comes into play. If the trade war continues, the industry could see a noticeable hit to aircraft manufacturer’s profitability, particularly in Boeing’s case.

Future Outlook

Overall, the increase in orders and commitments at this year’s Farnborough Airshow demonstrates the strength of the manufacturers and the positive outlook organizations have for the coming years. While Airbus and Boeing both had strong showings at the event to increase their aircraft backlog, their potential to reach their own productivity goals and fulfill orders remains tied to the engine manufacturers’ ability to meet the demand. Lastly, both organizations must look to overcome the market challenges presented by the US-China trade war.

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